Beyond Attribution
Traditional attribution models assign credit to touchpoints. Last-click gives everything to the final interaction. Multi-touch distributes credit across a journey. But neither explains why the conversion happened. Conversion Modeling goes deeper: it identifies the causal drivers of purchase behavior and quantifies their individual impact.
Multi-Factor Driver Analysis
The module breaks conversion into its component drivers: Price Sensitivity (+20% conversion lift when aligned), Engagement Quality (+8% lift), Match Quality (+15% lift for Excellent Match), Trust Indicators, and Timing Alignment. Each factor's contribution is validated against archetype-level outcome data, not estimated from aggregate correlations. This means you know not just that conversions happened, but which levers produced them.
Archetype-Level Conversion Profiles
Different behavioral archetypes convert for different reasons. "Skeptical Innovators" convert when they see peer validation and detailed specifications. "Impulsive Aesthetes" convert on visual quality and social proof. "Value Optimizers" convert on competitive pricing and feature comparison. The Conversion Modeling module produces archetype-level conversion profiles so that campaign strategy can be tailored to the actual drivers for each audience segment.
Niche Benchmarking
The module provides niche comparison benchmarks - your conversion rate against specific category baselines. A 2.3% conversion rate means nothing without context. Against a 1.80% Entertainment niche baseline, it is strong. Against a 4.5% Direct Response baseline, it needs work. Niche benchmarking grounds performance in reality rather than arbitrary targets.
Tactical Weighting for Optimization
Conversion Modeling does not just diagnose - it prescribes. Optimization recommendations are prioritized by impact and feasibility. "Improving price alignment would produce +20% conversion lift" is a concrete, actionable insight. "Improving engagement quality would add +8%." These tactical weights let teams allocate resources to the levers with the highest return. Strategic Guidance then translates these weights into multi-step tactical blueprints.
The Integrity Filter
All conversion modeling is filtered through the Integrity Layer. Conversions driven by bot traffic, fake engagement, or incentivized installs are excluded before they enter the model. This ensures that causal drivers reflect genuine human behavior, not manufactured signals. Without this filter, conversion models would optimize for metrics that include fraud - producing strategies that look good on paper but fail in reality.